late 2019, a new virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in Wuhan, China, causing an infectious disease (1–3) that would later be named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization on February 11, 2020. This disease quickly spread across the globe, with a very rapid increase in new cases noted in many European countries and the United States between early February and early March 2020. On March 12, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the spread of COVID-19 a global pandemic. As of May 29, 2020, a total of 5,657,529 cases of COVID-19 were registered worldwide, with 356,254 confirmed deaths (4). In the United States alone, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on May 28, 2020, was 1,698,523, and 100,446 Americans had died of this disease (5).
To slow the spread of disease, policy makers and public health experts in many countries have developed a catalog of measures that are applied to a variable degree in most countries worldwide, including restrictions on interpersonal contact, assembly, and travel (i.e., social distancing); recommendations for sanitation, hygiene, and the wearing of masks in public places; rapid isolation of infected patients; and use of personal protective equipment when treating affected patients. In the United States, a decline in the number of new cases and COVID-19–related deaths is now seen in New York State (6) and other areas along the East Coast. However, because SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious, further spread of the disease is expected and appears to follow an east-to-west and centripetal pattern. Currently, no causal treatment is available for COVID-19, and a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 is not expected until early 2021. Accordingly, researchers at the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota have concluded that we could see “significant COVID activity for at least another 18–24 mo” (7). In that report, published on April 30, the authors developed 3 scenarios regarding how the COVID pandemic could unfold during this period: Scenario 1 consists of repeated peaks and valleys, scenario 2 predicts a peak in the fall of 2020 with additional smaller peaks throughout 2020 and 2021, and scenario 3 is characterized as a slow burn, with continued disease activity having smaller peaks and valleys until early 2022.
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Explanation:
late 2019, a new virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in Wuhan, China, causing an infectious disease (1–3) that would later be named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization on February 11, 2020. This disease quickly spread across the globe, with a very rapid increase in new cases noted in many European countries and the United States between early February and early March 2020. On March 12, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the spread of COVID-19 a global pandemic. As of May 29, 2020, a total of 5,657,529 cases of COVID-19 were registered worldwide, with 356,254 confirmed deaths (4). In the United States alone, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on May 28, 2020, was 1,698,523, and 100,446 Americans had died of this disease (5).
To slow the spread of disease, policy makers and public health experts in many countries have developed a catalog of measures that are applied to a variable degree in most countries worldwide, including restrictions on interpersonal contact, assembly, and travel (i.e., social distancing); recommendations for sanitation, hygiene, and the wearing of masks in public places; rapid isolation of infected patients; and use of personal protective equipment when treating affected patients. In the United States, a decline in the number of new cases and COVID-19–related deaths is now seen in New York State (6) and other areas along the East Coast. However, because SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious, further spread of the disease is expected and appears to follow an east-to-west and centripetal pattern. Currently, no causal treatment is available for COVID-19, and a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 is not expected until early 2021. Accordingly, researchers at the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota have concluded that we could see “significant COVID activity for at least another 18–24 mo” (7). In that report, published on April 30, the authors developed 3 scenarios regarding how the COVID pandemic could unfold during this period: Scenario 1 consists of repeated peaks and valleys, scenario 2 predicts a peak in the fall of 2020 with additional smaller peaks throughout 2020 and 2021, and scenario 3 is characterized as a slow burn, with continued disease activity having smaller peaks and valleys until early 2022.