Gather data on the number of covid cases that hit the country in the previous year.
Using the basic concepts of probabilit, come up with a report showing the estimate chances of a covid cases hitting the country for each month.
Using the basic concepts of probabilit, come up with a report showing the estimate chances of a covid cases hitting the country for each month.
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During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19, we provide a toolkit of statistical and mathematical models beyond the simple SIR-type differential equation models for analysing the early stages of an outbreak and assessing interventions. In particular, we focus on parameter estimation in the presence of known biases in the data, and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in enclosed subpopulations, such as households and care homes. We illustrate these methods by applying them to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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