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Things are moving fast with the COVID-19 novel coronavirus. On March 12, the World Health Organization declared that the virus is now a pandemic and President Trump announced a 30-day ban on all travel from the EU to the U.S. One thing is sure: COVID-19 is the quintessential ‘black swan’. Two key features of black swans are that their occurrence is highly unlikely and their impact is very big, which was also the case for the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2008-09. This brings us to one simple question that we try to answer in this column: what is the economic impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy? As we focus on the economic effects, we want to stress beforehand that we fully realise that there is much human suffering beneath the cold figures presented in this article

1. Answer:
2. Largest GDP contraction ever in Q1 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at -24%
3. Largest GDP contraction ever in Q1 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at -24%Sharp rise in unemployment
4. Largest GDP contraction ever in Q1 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at -24%Sharp rise in unemploymentStress on supply chains
5. Largest GDP contraction ever in Q1 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at -24%Sharp rise in unemploymentStress on supply chainsDecrease in government income
6. Largest GDP contraction ever in Q1 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at -24%Sharp rise in unemploymentStress on supply chainsDecrease in government incomeCollapse of the tourism industry
7. Largest GDP contraction ever in Q1 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at -24%Sharp rise in unemploymentStress on supply chainsDecrease in government incomeCollapse of the tourism industryCollapse of the hospitality industry
8. Largest GDP contraction ever in Q1 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at -24%Sharp rise in unemploymentStress on supply chainsDecrease in government incomeCollapse of the tourism industryCollapse of the hospitality industryReduced consumer activity
9. Largest GDP contraction ever in Q1 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at -24%Sharp rise in unemploymentStress on supply chainsDecrease in government incomeCollapse of the tourism industryCollapse of the hospitality industryReduced consumer activityPlunge in fuel consumption. Rise in LPG sales.
10. Largest GDP contraction ever in Q1 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at -24%Sharp rise in unemploymentStress on supply chainsDecrease in government incomeCollapse of the tourism industryCollapse of the hospitality industryReduced consumer activityPlunge in fuel consumption. Rise in LPG sales.Trade tensions with China

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